Strathclyde University polling expert John Curtice this week put Sunak’s chances of victory at just 5%, saying Truss was almost certain to win unless she “fouled in some spectacular way” in the final stages of the Tory leadership contest. Many Conservative members have already voted, which cannot be changed before the 5pm deadline on 2 September. However, that doesn’t stop the Tories’ hard-line opponents from engaging in some wishful thinking about a wrong so huge – past or present – that it needs to be undone. “My belief is that she will be a terrible prime minister,” groans one Conservative MP and former cabinet minister. “You have this bidding process in terms of taxes and spending – the absolute worst way to make decisions. So this is problematic to begin with. “And he’s also surrounded by these different groups – the ERG fanatics, not just the Brexiteers, but those who have a very strange view of the world, and the other is the careerists. I laughed out loud at all the ministers declaring for her.” Conservative members – among whom he enjoys a lead of around 30 points over Sunak – do not appear to have been put off by Truss’ missteps in what has been far from a smooth campaign. She has reversed course on whether to cut the pay of public servants in the regions, abandoning the new policy less than 24 hours after it was laid out in a press release, and changed her mind on whether to give “handouts” to those struggling with high bills energy. Meanwhile, her campaign pledge to tackle the “culture of awakening” that “escalates into anti-Semitism” in public services caused an outcry in Whitehall and offended some Jews with her definition of Jewishness as setting up businesses and supporting the family unit . Some of her previous comments and political ideas also surfaced during the campaign, raising questions about what she really believes. Audio leaked by the Guardian from Truss’ time as Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2019 showed her launching a broadside against British workers, saying they needed “more graft” and suggesting they lacked the “skill and application” of foreigners opponents. Further back, he co-authored a paper for the Reform thinktank in 2009 proposing a charge for GP access and a review of the future of the Trident nuclear deterrent. Truss long ago wanted to abolish the monarchy, of which she is now a staunch defender, and has gone from an opponent of Brexit to a staunch supporter who attracts the support of the most ardent Eurosceptics. Then, in March, she was forced to withdraw her support for the idea of British nationals joining the fight against Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine after being pushed back by her colleagues. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Conservative members don’t seem interested in such fluidity, although whether the public learns to love a gaffe-prone prime minister is another matter. Boris Johnson, with an unrivaled penchant for slip-ups, always managed to avoid his mistakes – until the Partygate and Tory sex-harassment scandals caught up with him. The question is whether Truss, with less charm and campaigning experience, will be the election winner Tory members hope she will be if she continues on her current path. In an article in Critic magazine, one of her former staffers, Henry Oliver, wrote last month that her blunders did not stop her from being a “magnificent politician” and serious thinker. “A lot of what irritates the Guardian about Liz is the veneer. Her bark is worse than her bite. Her gaffes distract from her talent,” he wrote in July. Some MPs supporting Truss acknowledged some concerns about the frequency of her slip-ups during the campaign, but for at least one, her “energy and courage” more than made up for the difficult situation in recent weeks. “I have some concerns but the members seem quite willing to me despite everything that has happened,” said the veteran Tory backbencher.
