Wednesday’s poll pits veteran politicians against a generation of young voters who are just beginning to realize they can bring about radical change and escape the shadow of the cold war. Observers say discontent with the rule of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), in power since Angola declared independence from Portugal in 1975, has reached the point where the party is only now securing five more years in power through fraud and repression. “It is an existential election and it will be a very tough fight. If there were free and fair elections, there is no doubt that the opposition would win, but the government is not going to allow it,” said Paula Cristina Roque, an independent analyst and author. Other parties and leaders who have remained in power for decades since winning liberation struggles on the continent are likely to see the growing difficulties of their counterparts in Angola as a warning. Thiago Costa, one of the new wave of comedians in Angola, said young voters must step up and make the country a better place. Photo: GOZ’AQUi As elsewhere in Africa, a key factor in Angola is the youth of the population. Over 60% are under 24 years old. Thiago Costa, one of the most successful of a new wave of comedians and other creative artists in Angola, said the millions of young people who voted for the first time had values and views that differed dramatically from their politicians. “We’re just living the same thing over and over again. Young people in Angola ask: “What’s going on here?” These kids get lost in these speeches and stories that they just don’t understand or deserve,” Costa, 37, said. “Young people here should learn from the mistakes of their elders [and] move forward to make Angola a country for Angolans, not for parties that always divide us and never do their job.” President João Lourenço, a veteran MPLA official and former defense minister, came to power in 2017 as the chosen successor to José Eduardo dos Santos, whose authoritarian rule lasted 38 years. The body of the former president, who died in Spain in July, was due to arrive in Luanda on Saturday, throwing a new element into the tense election campaign. Although the 68-year-old Lorenzo has tried to stimulate economic growth and pay off huge debts, he has failed to improve the lives of most of the population of 35 million. Critics say a high-profile anti-corruption drive has only targeted potentially powerful enemies – such as Isabel dos Santos, the ex-president’s ultra-rich daughter – while Amnesty International has described “an unprecedented crackdown on human rights, including unlawful killings and of arbitrary arrests, ahead of the August 24 elections”. Analysts said that when given the choice between saving the MPLA or saving the nation, Lorenzo put the party first. “They were not going to reform out of power,” Roque said. “For a long time Angolans said: ‘We are poor, we are fighting, but we are quiet and that is enough.’ But now they are angry and frustrated and have nothing to lose.” . A boom that followed the end of the brutal 27-year civil war in 2002 largely benefited the elite. Life expectancy in Angola remains one of the lowest in the world, services are patchy and millions live in misery despite the country’s huge profits from oil exports. “Most people I talk to say that Lorenzo has done nothing for them in these five years,” said Laura Macedo, an activist campaigning for better conditions for those in Luanda’s vast slums. “Most people plan to vote for the opposition.” Lourenço’s main opponent is Adalberto Costa Júnior of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (Unita). Although only eight years younger than the incumbent, Costa Júnior tried to position himself as a representative of young civil society and all those who lost out under the years of MPLA rule. Isabel dos Santos, daughter of former president José Eduardo dos Santos, has built a huge fortune but has been the target of a high-profile anti-corruption fight. Photo: Bloomberg/Getty Images Unita was once the proxy of the West, funded and armed by the US and its allies, but eventually lost the civil war to the MPLA, which was supported by the Soviet Union and Cuba. Under Costa Júnior, the party has shifted to the center but is still seen as pro-Western and pro-business, in contrast to the MPLA’s socialist ideological background and continued ties to Russia. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Angola, with its vast oil reserves, is now a key competitive zone of great power. Beijing has lost ground in recent years after José Eduardo dos Santos racked up huge debts to China to pay for infrastructure projects that have often been built or poorly designed. Both Russia and the US have made efforts to gain influence in Luanda as well. The conflict in Ukraine has intensified rivalries across the continent. Angola was among 17 African countries that refused to back a UN General Assembly resolution condemning the Russian invasion, prompting some to describe a “new cold war” on the continent. Both Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, and Anthony Blinken, the US secretary of state, have toured Africa in recent months in an effort to strengthen relations on the continent. Neither stopped at Luanda, although both paid attention to central Africa. Unita officials say they are prepared to wait another five years before taking power, but the MPLA’s difficulties underscore the challenges faced by many other parties or leaders that came to power after the continent’s conflict. You can rig elections but it doesn’t drive away the anger. The danger is that frustration comes out in riots … and turmoil. Nic Cheeseman, professor of democracy In Uganda, 77-year-old Yoweri Museveni has ruled since 1986 and faces a strong opposition movement led by former musician Bobi Wine who has won the support of the youth and city dwellers. A recent poll put Nelson Chamisa, Zimbabwe’s opposition leader, three points ahead of the Zanu-PF party, which came to power in 1980. The ANC in South Africa was led into government by Nelson Mandela after the fall of the apartheid apartheid regime in 1994, but also suffered a major loss of support. Recent polls have suggested the party could fall to 38% in elections in 2024, potentially ending its dominance or forcing a new era of coalition politics in Africa’s most industrialized country. Nic Cheeseman, a professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham who specializes in African politics, said the existing problems had combined with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the continent and recent global increases in food and fuel prices to cause a wave of discontent that threatened to destabilize governments everywhere – authoritarian and democratic. “You can set up elections and stay in power, but it doesn’t take away the anger. The danger is then that frustration will manifest itself in other ways, in riots, political violence and unrest,” Cheeseman said. This may be a risk the West – greedy for new energy supplies – will be prepared to take. “Angola has oil. The West needs energy security. So, even if the MPLA retains power through rigged elections, the West will continue to put stability above democracy,” Roque said.
